The new cycle of solar storms, lasting 11 years should begin in March next year and reach maximum intensity in late 2011 or mid 2012 (up to a year later than initially expected) , according to a forecast issued by the Space Environment Center of NOAA, in coordination with an international panel of solar experts.
(ANI): Expected to start last fall, the delayed onset of Solar Cycle 24 has cast doubt on the experts and has left undecided as to whether we will face a strong or weak cycle of storms solar.
During an active solar period, violent eruptions occur in the sun more often. Solar flares and vast explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, shoot towards Earth photons and high energy particles, shaking the ionosphere and magnetic field the planet, with the potential to affect electrical grids, the communication signals of critical systems such as aviation, satellites, and GPS global positioning devices, and even threatening astronauts with harmful radiation levels . These same storms illuminate night skies with some bright red and green halos are auroras
The intensity of a solar cycle is measured by the maximum number of sunspots, dark patches on the solar surface that mark areas of heightened magnetic activity. The greater the amount of sunspots, the greater the likelihood that the triggering of large solar storms. The forecast newly introduced cycle, half of the experts of the panel predicts a moderately strong cycle of 140 spots, with a margin of up to 20 more or less, and a peak expected by October 2011. The other half of the experts predicted a moderately weak cycle of 90 spots, with a margin of up to 10 more or less, and a peak expected in August 2012.
An average solar cycle ranges between 75 and 155 spots. The late decline of Cycle 23 has helped change the initial view of the panel members, who previously expected a strong Cycle 24. Now the group is evenly split between supporters of the cycle of strong and weak.
The first year after solar minimum, marking the end of Cycle 23, will provide the information scientists need to reach a consensus. NOAA and the panel decided to issue their best estimate now and update it as the cycle progresses, since users of the Space Environment Center of NOAA have been requesting a forecast for more than a year.
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